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According to reports from the state news agency Xinhua,菲律賓 former President Duterte was detained by Philippine police upon his return to Manila International Airport after reportedly fleeing the country. Local media cited officials as stating that an international criminal investigation agency had issued a red notice for Duterte following an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC).

菲律賓前總統(tǒng)杜特爾特被捕

Before being arrested, Duterte had just completed a campaign rally in the Philippines. According to reports from參考消息網(wǎng), on March 10, Duterte and his wife arrived in Hong Kong, while on March 9, he attended a party in the銅鑼灣 district of Hong Kong. His daughter,現(xiàn)任菲律賓副總統(tǒng)莎拉·杜特爾特, also attended the event. Over 2,000菲律賓 citizens were present, with some holding photos of Duterte, while others who were not allowed to attend were gathered nearby. Security officers were on hand to maintain order.

The Philippine《馬尼拉時(shí)報(bào)》 cited a security official who had firsthand knowledge of the preparations, stating that at least 7,000 police personnel were deployed to apprehend Duterte. Security forces were focusing on major entry points, including ports and airports, to prepare for his return. However, most of the police were concentrated in Manila and his hometown, Davao. On March 11, according to a report by Reuters, Duterte's former chief legal advisor, Panenlo, said the arrest was illegal. He also claimed that police prevented him from meeting his lawyer at the airport.

"The political situation in the Philippines has evolved rapidly, and Duterte's actions have often been unpredictable. Outside observers had predicted he would eventually return to the Philippines, possibly spending some time abroad, such as until April. However, he returned unexpectedly." said Dr. Chen Jin, an associate professor at the School of International Relations at暨南大學(xué) (Jianmin University), referring to an interview with澎湃新聞. Chen explained that Duterte's return could be for election-related considerations and the future of his political family. He also noted that "he is about 70, and if the current president,馬科斯, takes too harsh action against him when his popularity is high, he might end up in a predicament."

"馬科斯本可以不搭理ICC"

The arrest warrant from the ICC was tied to Duterte's anti-drug efforts during his tenure as Philippine president. According to Xinhua, Duterte launched a significant anti-drug campaign during his eight years in office, which garnered worldwide attention. The ICC had investigated his involvement in several anti-drug actions. On March 16, 2019, during Duterte's tenure, the Philippines withdrew from the International Criminal Court.

Duterte and馬科斯 資料圖

Philippine and foreign media have linked the arrest to the ongoing rivalry between the two major Philippine political families, the Duterte clan and the馬科斯 clan. The two families have been locked in a heated competition, with their rivalry becoming increasingly intense.

Before 2021, the two families were not close, and there was even some tension due to Duterte's mother,索萊達(dá), participating in the 1986 "People's Power Revolution" against former President馬科斯. However, after a series of meetings in 2021, the two families formed a alliance to campaign for the 2022 Philippine presidential election, with Duterte's wife,莎拉, becoming vice president and former President小馬科斯 becoming president. Despite their unity, the two families were not without internal conflicts. In the 2022內(nèi)閣分配,莎拉 was denied the position of national defense minister, which had been allocated to her family, and instead was appointed as minister of education. In May 2023, she was stripped of her post as vice-minister of the senate for her ally, former President羅穆亞爾德斯, during a senate impeachment proceeding. This move angered many, leading to public criticism of the outgoing眾議院議長(zhǎng).

此后，雙方之間的爭(zhēng)端持續(xù)升級(jí)。莎拉在副總統(tǒng)辦公室的直播中含淚表示了震驚全國(guó)的言論：“如果我被殺死了，就去殺了總統(tǒng)馬科斯、第一夫人和眾議長(zhǎng)！”這一言論引發(fā)了雙方的激烈對(duì)峙。

杜特爾特家族陷入被動(dòng)局面。羅穆亞爾德斯帶領(lǐng)眾議院審查莎拉處理機(jī)密資金的方式，此事以及她提出的“殺人威脅”成為彈劾她的關(guān)鍵證據(jù)。今年2月5日，莎拉被眾議院彈劾。彈劾指控包括違憲、背叛公眾、腐敗以及涉嫌策劃暗殺總統(tǒng)、第一夫人和眾議長(zhǎng)等多項(xiàng)罪名。這些罪名一旦成立，莎拉將成為菲律賓歷史上首位遭彈劾下臺(tái)的副總統(tǒng)。

另一方面，馬科斯也在考慮是否與國(guó)際刑事法院（ICC）合作。馬科斯在上任前多次強(qiáng)調(diào)，不會(huì)協(xié)助ICC調(diào)查杜特爾特。然而，2023年，眾議院司法委員會(huì)和人權(quán)委員會(huì)通過了三項(xiàng)決議，敦促政府與ICC合作。不久之后，馬科斯公開表示，正在重新考慮是否加入ICC。杜特爾特陣營(yíng)對(duì)此指責(zé)稱，馬科斯的轉(zhuǎn)變是為了將杜特爾特“送至荷蘭海牙”。

“ICC的行動(dòng)，馬科斯本可以置之不理，但在局勢(shì)惡化后，他的立場(chǎng)在發(fā)生變化。他原本希望通過ICC施加壓力，但杜特爾特反而采取了反制措施，反而將壓力轉(zhuǎn)嫁給了馬科斯。”代帆指出。

“南部地區(qū)的選情已經(jīng)很穩(wěn)固了”？

雖然毒品戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)在國(guó)際上引發(fā)了爭(zhēng)議，但在菲律賓國(guó)內(nèi)，杜特爾特的受歡迎程度并未下降。在卸任前一個(gè)季度，杜特爾特的支持率為67.2%，信任度為61.7%，這一成績(jī)讓他在卸任總統(tǒng)前繼續(xù)保持過半數(shù)支持率的記錄。

美國(guó)華盛頓大學(xué)歷史系的講席教授、菲律賓資深歷史學(xué)者拉斐爾在接受媒體采訪時(shí)表示，杜特爾特的形象和言論風(fēng)格深深植根于菲律賓當(dāng)?shù)匚幕?，他的社?huì)支持很可能會(huì)長(zhǎng)期存在。

杜特爾特自稱清白。資料顯示，杜特爾特曾在馬科斯政府任內(nèi)擔(dān)任副總統(tǒng)。

據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，杜特爾特在香港的一個(gè)集會(huì)上表示：“假設(shè)真的有逮捕令，我為什么要推行嚴(yán)格的反毒政策？是為了我自己？為了我的家人？不，是為了你們，為了你們的孩子，為了我們的國(guó)家。如果這確實(shí)是我的命運(yùn)，那就這樣吧，我會(huì)接受。他們可以逮捕我，關(guān)進(jìn)監(jiān)獄?！?/p>

杜特爾特還表示：“我的罪是什么呢？在我的任期內(nèi)，我所做的所有事情，都是為了和平，都是為了讓菲律賓人民能夠過上和平的生活?！?/p>

菲律賓總?cè)丝谥杏屑s230萬(wàn)海外菲律賓人（即"在海外的菲律賓人"），他們被稱為"菲律賓海外勞工"（OFW）。這些勞工主要在中國(guó)香港、新加坡等地從事家政工作，他們的收入是菲律賓經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要支柱。其中許多人是杜特爾特的支持者。

中國(guó)外交部駐港公署10日回答記者提問時(shí)表示，據(jù)了解，杜特爾特先生此次來(lái)港是私人度假行程。菲律賓公民在香港舉行的集會(huì)，均已根據(jù)特區(qū)相關(guān)法律法規(guī)事先提出申請(qǐng)。

菲律賓將于5月舉行中期選舉。原本計(jì)劃競(jìng)選達(dá)沃市市長(zhǎng)的退休兩年多的杜特爾特，他的競(jìng)選活動(dòng)普遍被認(rèn)為是爭(zhēng)取外界對(duì)其女兒莎拉的支持，以便在未來(lái)2028年競(jìng)選菲律賓總統(tǒng)。

代帆表示，杜特爾特主動(dòng)回國(guó)后被捕，可能會(huì)得到同情票，南部地區(qū)的選情可能會(huì)因此穩(wěn)定。接下來(lái)看看國(guó)內(nèi)公眾的反應(yīng)。