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Last night, U.S. equities managed to avoid the downward trend, with NVIDIA showing a rebound. Additionally, the narrative of "Chinese Star Trek" heating up further propelled the market today. AI-related sectors surged, particularly those linked to data centers and state-owned asset management, but traditional權(quán)重板塊 like consumer goods underperformed. By midday, the AI sector led alone, with the index and market sentiment diverging. suddenly, at 1:30 PM, securities began to rally, with銀河證券 hitting a漲停, propelling the index upwards. However, the strength was insufficient to sustain the advance. At 2:00 PM, bond markets surged, dragging Hong Kong equities into a free fall, which in turn caused A shares to drop. At the close of trading, AI stocks experienced a massive sell-off in the尾盤. Yet, the so-called "southward soldiers" (referring to mainland investors) seemed puzzled, as if questioning the "mule" (chariot) they had been following. Once again, they pumped over 260 billion yuan into the market, with恒生科技's final decline narrowing.

The drop in A and H shares at close bell today can be attributed to three main factors:

First, both Hong Kong tech stocks and mainland tech stocks have surged excessively, with heavy profit-taking positions. After the科普 videos from various institutions and influencers, even lay investors like roadside vendors have grown suspicious, signaling an overvalued sentiment that has reached its peak. There is also divergence between investor sentiment and actual positions, with foreign institutions expressing differing views on Chinese assets.

Second, U.S. markets will release February CPI data tonight. While it is likely to show a decline, an unexpected drop could undermine the Fed's降息預(yù)期, prompting some investors to sell off to seek safer havens.

Third, news broke that February social融資規(guī)模 fell short of expectations, suggesting the Fed may cut rates and restart its bond-buying program. Bond markets seem to have believed this, with Treasury futures surging at the close.

Additionally, while I have been a consistent supporter of the narrative that markets will experience a wave of up and down rather than a straight line decline, I have always emphasized that the journey will be bumpy, not a straight path to the finish line. Markets often rise and fall in waves, and we need to prepare for the next phase of the story after the current wave concludes.

The concept of "storyline" is designed to make investment ideas more accessible and to spread the narrative widely, attracting more散戶 to enter the market. However, in reality, every upward move is good news, and every downward move is bad news.

The situation is simple: Bulls will buy stocks with good news and sell them with bad news. Only those with conviction in their portfolios will remain optimistic. I remind everyone to stay cautious.

Earlier, I shared insights from Goldman Sachs' research report, which indicated that the main reason for Hong Kong's price gains in the January to February period was driven by rising valuations due to improved earnings momentum. However, the risk premium level of恒生科技 is now nearing historical highs, suggesting that market sentiment has become increasingly optimistic. The potential for further gains is limited.

Many are pointing to the high valuations of U.S. tech giants, such as their P/E ratios of 28.1x, and suggesting that恒生科技's P/E of less than 20x still offers room for growth. But this ignores the fact that the ROE (return on equity) of Chinese tech firms is significantly lower than that of their U.S. counterparts. Assuming that U.S. tech stocks are fairly valued at a P/E of 28.1x and ROE of 34.2%, Chinese tech stocks trading at a P/E of 17.4x with an ROE of 16.8% may already be overvalued. The justified P/E for Chinese tech firms could be as low as 15-16x.

當(dāng)然，如果美國經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)疲軟，ROE很可能會下降。但如果中國經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇，ROE就有望上升，同時估值也將持續(xù)修復(fù)。因此，A股和港股想要繼續(xù)走強，必須要有宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)的支撐。

我認(rèn)為從現(xiàn)在到月底是賣出的好時機，業(yè)內(nèi)人士都知道，3月底通常是機構(gòu)換倉期，特別是這兩個月，AI和機器人相關(guān)的股票已經(jīng)獲利較多。公募基金在年內(nèi)漲幅排名前五的領(lǐng)域主要是機器人主題，后五名則是科技主題。如果你是基金經(jīng)理，今年已經(jīng)取得了不錯的業(yè)績，又想爭取年度冠軍，你會采取什么策略？另外，4月份是季度報告發(fā)布窗口，我覺得市場可能會出現(xiàn)大洗牌，業(yè)績不佳的股票需要格外小心。

再來看今天的重大消息：

最后簡單總結(jié)一下盤面，截至收盤，上證指數(shù)下跌0.23%，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指下跌0.58%，恒生指數(shù)下跌0.76%，恒生科技指數(shù)下跌2.04%。當(dāng)日市場成交額達(dá)到1.72萬億元，漲跌基本持平。

行業(yè)方面來看，傳媒、通信、計算機、建筑裝飾、環(huán)保等行業(yè)表現(xiàn)領(lǐng)先，而美容護理、煤炭、食品飲料、建筑材料、農(nóng)林牧漁等行業(yè)領(lǐng)跌。

風(fēng)險提示：

市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎，本文僅為信息分享，不構(gòu)成投資建議，讀者應(yīng)獨立思考后再做決策。